Thursday, May 5, 2016

What-If: Kevin Durant went to LA?


Ah, the Lakers. A team which has had legends in every era play for it. Jerry West, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, and so many others wore the colors of Los Angeles night in and night out. However, with Kobe Bryant retiring, who will be the Next Great Laker?

Well, Kevin Durant is a free agent this offseason. What if? What if Kevin Durant took his talents to Hollywood and competed for the Lakers?

Well, as you can see in the image above, according to ESPN's NBA Trade Machine, the Lakers would win a whopping 13 more games with the addition of Durant to the roster. The scoring superstar and former MVP would really improve the team in LA.

Now this is a What-If scenario, so we are allowed to make assumptions. What if, with the addition of a superstar like Durant, the Lakers are able to attract more players? What if they attracted young center Hassan Whiteside? 

Well, they would probably win 12 more games, according to the NBA Trade Machine. 

Also, the 2016 NBA Draft is coming up soon. So that means the Lakers have a good chance at either Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram, both college stars who are both ready to play at the NBA level, which should increase the Lakers' wins by 5. 

Another young star of the Lakers we're forgetting about is D'Angelo Russell. Magic Johnson will reportedly train Russell this offseason, which should boost the Lakers as well.

Now imagine, a young D'Angelo Russell tapping into his potential, the explosive Ben Simmons, the defensive-minded Whiteside, and the future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant on the floor as a team, backed up by young stars like Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr, truly bringing back Los Angeles as a contender.

Yes, you can argue that Durant wants to win now and would never go to LA, you can say that there's no guarantee that Simmons or Ingram would be stars in the league, and that Whiteside wouldn't come to the Lakers. But this is just a what-if, just an interesting scenario to think about.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Statistical Breakdown: 95-96 Bulls vs. 15-16 Warriors

In case you haven't been paying attention to the NBA, sports in general, or, well, anything, the Golden State Warriors are taking over the Internet. Every sports article is about reigning MVP Stephen Curry, or how good the Warriors have been playing this season, or whether they're going to break the 95-96 Bulls record of 72 wins in a season.

Woah, hold on there.

Did I say the 95-96 Bulls? The Michael Jordan Bulls? Yeah.

People have been comparing Stephen Curry to MJ and the Warriors to the Bulls this whole season. However, let's have a closer look. (All stats are powered by http://www.basketball-reference.com/)

Scoring

Let's begin by looking at the scoring stats.

The Golden State Warriors have been scoring 115 points a game, while the Bulls scored 105 a game.

The Warriors have a field goal percentage of 48.7%, while the Bulls had a percentage of 47.8%.

The centerpiece of the Warriors, Stephen Curry, averages 29.8 points a game this season, while Michael Jordan had 30.4 points a game.

The Warriors have a strength of schedule of -0.48, while the Bulls had a strength of schedule of -0.44.

The Warriors have a 3-point field goal percentage of 41.6%, while the Bulls had one of 40.3%.

These stats tell us that both teams went through nearly equally hard schedules, and both had almost equal results, with the Warriors doing better, by just a little.

Rebounding

The Warriors are averaging 45.6 rebounds a game, and the Bulls averaged 44.6 rebounds a game.

However, the Bulls had 15.2 offensive rebounds a game, compared to the Warriors, who have 9.8 offensive boards a game.

When it came to defensive rebounding, the Bulls averaged 29.4 a game, while the Warriors averaged 35.8 a game.

Dennis Rodman, the Bulls's best rebounder, averaged 16.4 rebounds a game, while the Warriors Draymond Green averaged 9.5 a game.

Looking at the rebounding numbers, the Bulls seem to be a more aggressive team centered around a few players. In contrast, the Warriors players all contributed a little, and were more well-rounded on offensive and defensive rebounds.

Passing

When it comes to assists, the Warriors have averaged 28.9 assists a game, while the Bulls averaged 24.8 a game.

The Bulls's best player when it came to assists, Scottie Pippen, averaged 5.9 assists a game in contrast to the Warriors's Draymond Green, who has averaged 7.4 assists a game.

The passing stats show us how the Warriors are a team more focused on moving the ball to create quality shots, while the Bulls were a team more focused around a scoring centerpiece, Michael Jordan.

Defense

In the 1995-96 season, the Bulls averaged 9.1 steals a game, while the Warriors have averaged 8.3 a game.

The Bulls averaged 4.2 blocks a game, while the Warriors average 6.0 a game.

The Bulls held their opponents to 92.9 points a game, while the Warriors' opponents have averaged 104.1 points a game.

One of the Bulls' best defenders, Michael Jordan, averaged 2.2 steals and 0.5 blocks a game. Draymond Green,  one of the Warriors' best defenders, has averaged 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks a game.

The Bulls were a tough defense which contested their opponents inside and on the perimeter, while the Warriors are skilled interior defenders.

Who's Better?

Looking at all of the statistics, the Bulls are a team which have players who play special roles within the team. For example, Rodman is the star rebounder, Jordan is the star scorer, and Pippen is a playmaker for the team. The Warriors, in contrast, seem to be more well-rounded, with each player being able to play defense, or hit a three when they get a ball.

However, comparing the two teams cannot be measured by stats. We cannot say who would win in a game or a 7-game series based on statistics, or anything for that matter. The teams played in different eras, had different opponents, different playing styles. The only true way to determine a winner would be if the two teams decided to play each other. And that, for now, is impossible.

Friday, January 8, 2016

Predicting the AFC Wild Card Round: AJ McCarron and Spencer Ware the X-Factors?

The playoffs begin tomorrow, and with some unexpected upsets in Week 17, our playoff picture is complete. Who is going to win tomorrow and continue their quest for a ring? Let's find out.

AFC Wild Card Round
1.Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers got lucky to get here, with Buffalo winning it to put them into the playoff picture. Can they make some noise? Yes, they can.

If you look at the Bengals passing defense, they're giving up 250 yards a game. And the Steelers have the third most passing yards in the league, with almost 300 a game. Granted, Roethlisberger has thrown 4 interceptions against the Bengals this season. However, Antonio Brown had 43 catches for 524 yards in his last 4 games, with 187 in his last game. The Steelers' pass offense has a lot of momentum going into this game.

If you look at the Steelers passing defense, they're giving up nearly 300 yards a game. The Bengals' pass offense is averaging 250 yards a game. However, Andy Dalton is out. The biggest question of this game is whether AJ Mccarron can deliver. If Andy Dalton, the Red Rifle, hasn't won a playoff game in his career, I don't see McCarron doing too much better. McCarron has shown a great passer rating, and has a 6:2 touchdown to interception ratio, but the rookie from Alabama with no playoff experience and only 4 games outplaying Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, one of the best duos in the league? I don't think so.

The Steelers and Bengals are both top 10 run defenses, and top 16 run offenses. The running game looks even, except for one thing: the Steelers don't have DeAngelo Williams. So they will have to rely on who? Fitzgerald Toussaint? The guy who ran the ball 12 times for 24 yards? Oh. The Bengals have an advantage here, but this will still be a close game.

I think if the Steelers can pressure AJ Mccarron and force him to make a few bad throws, just like they forced him to throw 2 interceptions a few weeks ago, they take this game. I'm calling the Steelers led by the explosive Antonio Brown.

Final: Steelers 24, Bengals 21

2.Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Tesans
Kansas City hasn't won a playoff game since they had a former 49ers quarterback and they played Houston. Oh wait.

If you look at the Texans passing defense, they're only giving up 210 yards a game. However, against the Chiefs, they gave up 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. In the Texans 10-game win streak, Alex Smith has thrown 14 touchdowns. Alex Smith isn't an elite quarterback, and the Texans are a good pass defense, but I think this Chiefs offense can do a little damage over the air.

The Chiefs are only giving up 230 yards a game, and the Texans are only getting 230 yards a game. The Texans pass offense mainly consists of DeAndre Hopkins, who will be guarded by Marcus Peters. Marcus Peters is already one of the better cornerbacks in the league, so this is a key matchup. However, other than Marcus Peters defending Hopkins, the Chiefs are one of the top 10 teams when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. I think the Chiefs will stop the Texans' pass offense, or at least limit it.

The Texans running attack will probably be led by Alfred Blue or Chris Polk. When Blue is given more than 20 carries, he is averaging 100 yards. However, the Chiefs are a top ten running defense, so I don't see the Texans having a huge game on the ground.

The Chiefs running attack will feature Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. West has only had one 100-yard game this season, and he's playing a top 10 run defense. Ware, however, has made the most of every carry and has been producing, on a little more than 400 yards on 70 carries. Based on this, if Ware had as many carries as Chris Johnson did when he broke the rushing record, Ware would break the rushing record Chris Johnson set.

Overall, this game is pretty even, but the Chiefs have a little advantage on both sides of the ball. Also, the Chiefs have a lot of momentum going into this game with their 10-game win streak. I think the Chiefs take this one.

Final: Chiefs 17, Texans 13